• Global climate models are unable
to make accurate projections of climate even 10 years ahead, let alone the
100-year period that has been adopted by policy planners. The output of such
models should therefore not be used to guide public policy formulation.
• Neither the rate nor the magnitude
of the reported late twentieth century surface warming (1979–2000) lay outside
the range of normal natural variability, nor were they in any way unusual
compared to earlier episodes in Earth’s climatic history.
• Solar forcing of temperature
change is likely more important than is currently recognized.
• No unambiguous evidence exists of
dangerous interference in the global climate caused by human-related CO2
emissions. In particular, the cryosphere is not melting at an enhanced rate;
sea-level rise is not accelerating; and no systematic changes have been
documented in evaporation or rainfall or in the magnitude or intensity of
extreme meteorological events.
• Any human global climate signal is
so small as to be nearly indiscernible against the background variability of
the natural climate system. Climate change is always occurring.
• A phase of temperature stasis or
cooling has succeeded the mild warming of the twentieth century. Similar
periods of warming and cooling due to natural variability are certain to occur
in the future irrespective of human emissions of greenhouse gases.
Hoffman also reproduces a chart much beloved of climate
skeptics, showing actual temperature change alongside that predicted by the
models. Climate hawks counter that the “missing heat” is to be found in the
oceans, but there remains a remarkable disparity between the predictions of
fifteen years ago and what actually happened.
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